From our knowledgebank
VIC/TAS Independent schools are flying into the future
By Peter Buckingham
Peter Buckingham is the Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis, a Melbourne based consultancy in demographics, mapping and analysis specializing in schools. Peter is both a CMC (Certified Management Consultant) and a Fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants (FIMC). Peter can be contacted at peterb@spectrumanalysis.com.au or called on 03 98300077.
Many of us (myself included) were of the view a couple of years ago that the pandemic would cause more economic strain across the country, and force (for financial reasons) an exodus of students from Independent schools into the Government schools system. Whilst unemployment went up, it was low in the white collar and grey collar communities, and these are predominantly the parents of your students.
Independent schools enrolments were up 5.74% in Victoria 2021 over 2019, mainly due to people sending their children to Independent schools earlier than they were planning to because the Independent schools handled home schooling far better than Government schools. This was not surprising when you think of the quality of your teachers and of the computer hardware that would be available in households of Independent school families compared to lower socio economic families with children at Government schools.
We keep hearing there is a strain on the Y5 and Y6 levels as parents wanted to send their children a couple of years earlier than they may have been previously planning.
We extracted this information out of the new ACARA data for Victoria that goes up to and includes 2021:
The Victorian numbers show Independent enrolments up 8.41% from 2018 – 2021, compared to a total number of students (all categories) increasing by 4.55% over the same period. Government schools have run at similar figures to the Victorian overall figures (4.66%), while Catholic schools have not kept up (1.59%).
The Tasmanian numbers as follows:
This shows the total student numbers in Tasmania have remained fairly stable – increasing only 0.38% from 2018 – 2021, whilst Independent numbers have grown 10.96%, and government school numbers have dropped by 1.83% over the same period. This is a great showcase for Independent schools over the other classifications.
Nationally, a similar set of numbers is showing to what we see in Victoria and Tasmania, meaning this has been a national phenomenon.
Learnings from these numbers
If your school has remained stable, dropped enrolments or has NOT felt the pressure of additional enrolment requests, you should be concerned! Whilst averages can be dangerous, and different geographies may have different challenges, the overall climate within Vic / Tas for Independent schools over the last 3 years has been moving strongly upwards. When the total number of students at Independent schools in around 8% – 10% from 2018 to 2021, hopefully you have felt the trend.
Longer term this may not last, but if parents have now placed their children in Independent schools, it is very difficult to then explain to them why you wish to take them back to a Government school. My view is that these numbers will hold for the next few years, and may reduce in the future once the threat of home schooling hopefully disappears, and Covid becomes something we all live with.
