The Nuclear Escalation Paradigm

Is Russia on the brink of nuclear war?

W. H. R. Johnston

From September 23rd to the 27th, ‘voting’ for a Russian referendum took place and it was concluded 3 days later that 4 Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation, according to state media. Ukraine and its international partners, however, have dismissed these claims as well as the dubious referendum results. 

According to Russia, under the laws of its referendum if its territories become threatened, it reserves the right to employ nuclear weapons. While the essential annexation of these Ukrainian regions is not honoured internationally, Russia officially views these regions in the same regard as Crimea, which Russia annexed back in 2014. 

Obviously, Ukraine is unwilling to secede from its territory as a result of Russian stipulation, and with the conflict slowly turning in their favour, for now, with large advances back into Russian-occupied territory, the looming threat of nuclear response from Russia is becoming increasingly prevalent.

However, while many commentators place Putin’s reluctance to escalate nuclear conflict on the subsequent international retaliation, there are in fact less examined factors that may have acted as even more potent deterrents to nuclear reaction thus far. Namely, the likelihood of strategic failure as well as the internal political turmoil that Putin would face.

As we all know, any nuclear force targeted at Ukraine, on internationally agreed upon Ukrainian territor,y would elicit an active response from the U.S and other Western nations, most likely conventional, which would likely spell disaster not only for the Ukraine invasion but also the future of Russia on an international stage. Additionally, it would force countries like China, India and Saudi Arabia to decide on continuing any ties at the certain cost of being heavily sanctioned by the West (as of now, India is already showing their intent to distance itself from Russia, so at least for India, it would seem certain that any nuclear escalation would result in a complete severing of connection).

However, there are also severe risks that the nuclear escalation itself would fail its military objectives. Much of the Russian nuclear arsenal is outdated and could even face issues surrounding detonation. Additionally, the use of nuclear weapons is unlikely to deliver a military knockout blow to the Ukrainian army, as a small number of missiles could not completely crush Ukrainian forces dispersed over the 1000km line of conflict. 

Additionally, a nuclear response would critically undermine Putin’s domestic political position. Nuclear escalation is in essence an admission to the Russian public that they are in fact, losing the war. All media in Russia is currently state controlled, meaning that their perception of the current state of the war is primarily based on propaganda which claims military superiority and crushing victories. If Russia then turns and launches nuclear missiles under the claim that they are “threatened”, they would be inadvertently admitting their lies to the people, which would create panic, distrust and possibly rebellion against the Kremlin.

Despite these disincentives, Putin is desperate, and if he fails to deliver the promised victory, the internal backlash could be detrimental; with a coup certainly becoming a possibility. Therefore, Putin may view the nuclear response as his last chance of maintaining power. Alternatively, his nuclear threat could be a bluff to force a favourable negotiation and a swift end to this Russian disaster. Ultimately, however, only time will tell the true intentions of Putin, thus, while it remains unlikely, nuclear escalation remains a frightening possibility.