Barkley’s resurgence: how one season changed the NFL’s running back market
During the 2023 offseason, the position of running back became a talking point in the evolution of modern NFL offences. Many teams viewed them as expendable and a commodity due to the demand for higher salaries amongst star tailbacks. Some experts such as Jason Reid of ESPN, argued that running backs are becoming unnecessary. In his 2023 article, ‘NFL running backs are in threat of extinction’, Reid stated:
“Nowadays, clubs prefer to cobble together the position with relatively inexpensive options, often moving on from players after their rookie contracts expire. Even for elite running backs such as Barkley, Pollard and Jacobs, it’s more likely that they’ll be assigned the franchise tag multiple times and released than they will be rewarded with long deals.”
The most notable example is Saquon Barkley, who was franchised tagged by the New York Giants for 10 million dollars. While that is nothing to sniff at, Barkley wanted a long-term contract from the Giants showing that they were committed to him as a franchise player. Instead they spent their cap space on quarterback Daniel Jones, signing him to a lucrative four-year, $160 million contract. Jones was released from his contract midway through the 2024 season due to poor performance.
Despite playing behind an offensive line ranked 8th worst in overall block win rate (59.87%), Barkley still managed to rush for 962 yards and six touchdowns on 3.9 yards per attempt across 14 games in 2023. n contrast, the Kansas City Chiefs—Super Bowl LIX champions—had the league’s highest block win rate at 74.23%. This strong offensive line play benefited young, inexpensive running back Isiah Pacheco (on a four-year, $3.73 million contract), who put up similar numbers to Barkley: 939 yards and seven touchdowns.
In the 2024 offseason Barkley chose to leave the New York Giants to join NFC East rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles, on a 3-year contract worth $37 million. In the previous season the Eagles finished 11-6, making the playoffs before losing to Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round 32 to 9. The Eagles lead back that game was Deandre Swift who rushed for an abysmal 34 yards on 10 carries. The Eagles boasted an impressive offence led by quarterback and eventual Super Bowl LIX MVP Jalen Hurts, 2 great wide receivers in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith and an impressive offensive line – 69.31% overall win block percentage, the second-best in the NFL – featuring stars like Lane Johnson and Jordan Malaita. The offense was coordinated by current New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore. Barkley would go onto have a monster season, rushing for 2005 yards (8th best of all time) and 13 touchdowns on 5.8 yards per attempt through 16 games of the regular season and had 499 yards and 5 touchdowns on 5.5 yards per attempt.
In the Super Bowl at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, the Kansas City Chiefs managed to shut down Barkley, holding him to 57 yards on 25 carries having an average yards per carry of 2.3. They did this by having the defence focus on Barkley throughout the contest by playing their safeties lower and pressuring the backfield. This, however, opened Philly’s passing attack due to the lack of a true deep secondary, allowing Hurts to find Brown, Smith and Jahan Dotson down field and throw for 221 yards and two touchdowns with a 77.3% completion rate. Combined with his rush for 72 yards and touchdown on 6.5 yards per carry, the Eagles were able to demolish the Chiefs 40-22.
The lack of a quality running game by the Chiefs (RB Kareem Hunt had just three carries for nine yards) put major pressure on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. This led to him throwing two interceptions and an expected points added (EPA) per drop-back of -1.45 – the lowest in a Super Bowl since 2000. In contrast, Hurts claimed the highest since 2000 with an EPA of 0.51. Hurt won Super Bowl MVP and solidified himself as one of the best quarterbacks of the 2020s. Barkley won Offensive Player of the Year for the regular season in one of the best seasons by a player in NFL history. His performance acting as a reset point for the running back market and will become a major focal point in the strategy discussions of other Super Bowl hopeful franchises in the 2025 offseason.
Zac C, Year 12