Red Wave?
U.S Midterm Election Results, the Winners and the Losers
W. H. R. Johnston
Following the United States’ midterm elections held on the 8th of November, the Republican party is headed to a majority in the House (Congress), which will significantly disrupt the Democratic agenda in the US. At face value, this would look like a good week for Republicans who lost the Presidency, the Senate and Congress in 2020. Why then are the democrats so pleased with this result? Why could this spell doom for the former president Donald Trump?
Firstly, the Democrats have somewhat spectacularly retained control of the Senate, despite the fairly widespread sentiment that they would fail to do so, giving them steady control of the upper house. Additionally, their big concern of a Republican landslide failed to materialise, as the predicted ‘Red Wave’ turned out to be a ‘Red Ripple’. Democratic concern was based on the traditional swing against an incumbent president mid-term, the US situation around traditional Republican-voter issues such as inflation, crime and immigration, and Joe Biden’s effectiveness, or seemingly, lack thereof at getting the Democratic base out to vote (only about one-third of registered voters cast a ballot in the midterms, while Australia dipped below 90% in the COVID impacted 2022 election for the first time since 1922).
Now, why does this impact Donald Trump? Well in 2016 the Republican Party Leadership was against Donald Trump, but he galvanised the ‘Republican base’ in such a way that he has effectively controlled the Party since that time. He has been personally involved in many candidate selections, ousting people who did not ‘toe his line’ – however, many of these selections failed, most notably celebrity senate candidate, Mehmet Oz. Therefore, the consensus in the Republican Party is that this has backfired and that, while he still controls the ‘Base’, he has lost touch with the broader electorate and risks making them unelectable. At the same time, a new hero of the Republicans has emerged. Ron DeSantis is 44 years old, and well known for his ‘anti-woke’ rhetoric, and profound Christian ideology. DeSantis won his gubernatorial race in the previously swing state of Florida in a landslide and is now the front runner for the Republican nomination in 2024 and is given the best odds to become the 47th president of the United States.
What are the implications for the world following the Democrats’ success?
The immediate effect is to reduce the potential for US-led turmoil on an international stage, particularly in Ukraine. Some of the more vocal Republicans were advocating a more US first policy on support for the war (e.g. Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene, “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine…”) and, while that was never likely to happen, the result has calmed international nerves.
Longer term, while it is too early to predict the end of President Trump’s influence (or even write him off for 2024, as he loves running as an underdog), the Republicans may actually have bolstered the likelihood of winning back the Presidency in 2024. Although he is not a uniting centrist force, DeSantis looks increasingly electable against an elderly, gaff-prone Biden who the Democrats are seemingly looking to present as their candidate in the next presidential election (and he has indicated that he currently plans to run again).
Therefore, in the notoriously complex game of politics, it seems as though the midterms were successful for the Republicans as they won back the U.S House, however, their victory seemed hollow, as it by no means reached its expectations of the media and conservative politicians, so in that sense was successful for the Democrats. However, the failure of the Republicans could allow for a restructuring of the party, possibly leading to a more electable candidate for 2024, and hence a greater chance of winning the next presidential election. So, it seems as though, in a fairly familiar tale, we must wait to witness the full scope of consequences before passing judgement on the winners and losers of the American midterm elections of 2022.
