Is the Future as Bleak as it Seems?

Or will the upward arc of progress save us all?

H. A. G. Longstaff

ACCORDING TO RIDLEY, OUR GENERATION IS AMONG THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC IN HISTORY. It’s said we’re the first to anticipate being less affluent than our parents. Housing is in crisis, with today’s average house costing 17 times the average income, compared to nine times in 1990. Birth rates have plummeted, with US fertility now at a mere 1.68 babies per woman—below the level needed for population replacement. And then there’s the looming spectre of climate catastrophe—echoed by the unforgettable words of Greta Thunberg: “You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words.”

Maybe other generations have also been bleak. Children growing up in the Cold War reportedly felt that they could be obliterated at any moment. Of course there are many still for whom just getting a meal a day is a struggle.

Yet, on any assessment, the world has never been better. We are wealthier, healthier, happier, kinder, more peaceful, more equal and longer-lived than any previous generation. A 2010 book by Matt Ridley, ‘The Rational Optimist’, covered this incredibly well.

Let’s look at a few statistics over time:

Wealthier: data from 1820 tell us that ¾ of the world lived in extreme poverty almost wherever they lived, whereas today it is less than 8 percent (using the UN’s measure), with most of these in Africa.

Healthier: For most of human history, around 1 in 2 newborns died before reaching the age of 15. By 1950, that figure had declined to around one-quarter globally. By 2020, it had fallen to 4 percent.

Happier: In 1900, the average American spent 76 percent of his income on food, clothing and shelter, yet today, that is 37 percent, with the balance free for the pursuit of happiness.

More Peaceful: Since 1800, more than 37 million people worldwide have died while actively fighting in war, not including civilians which, would have doubled this number at least. But only 1 percent of these deaths have been since 1945.

Advancing Equity: Progress toward gender equality is evident worldwide, with significant improvements in various aspects of female welfare. Whether it’s suffrage, educational achievements, health standards, or economic prosperity, women’s empowerment measures have seen substantial advancement. For instance, global female educational attainment has surged 50 percent since 1900, although progress remains uneven across regions. While Western Countries have made considerable strides, areas like Africa and the Middle East have experienced slower progress, albeit with accelerating momentum since 1980.

Extended Lifespan: In 1900, the average life expectancy of a newborn was 32 years. By 2021, this had more than doubled to 71 years.

So is there a cause to be so glum?

Technology has been the defining solution to the advancement of humanity. The printing press allowed the distribution of knowledge and standardisation of language, and the Industrial Revolution harnessed steam power to transform the industry. Agriculture has been transformed by genetic engineering and fertiliser technology so that a country such as India, once feared caught in a Malthusian trap, is now a net exporter of grains. It was only 66 years between the Wright Brothers’ first powered flight and Man’s Landing on the Moon. PCs and the latest generation of transformers have changed the world forever, driven ceaselessly forward in capability by Moore’s Law. I could go on.

There is an arguable case that technology can and will develop to continue the arc of human progress and address the challenges of our age, especially climate change. Technology can and will improve lives and solve problems with artificial intelligence at the vanguard.

I, for one, am a rational optimist.