International Retaliation 
The Escalation of the China-Taiwan Conflict
W. H. R. Johnston
With the invasion… sorry, “special military operation” in Ukraine grinding towards a stalemate (for now), another conflagration is being potentially ignited in the South-East between China and Taiwan.
China’s military has undertaken its largest ever military drills, provocatively targeting Taiwan with what is being deemed by the island’s government as a “simulated attack”. For the first time, China is reported to have launched ballistic missiles that overflew Taiwan, a significant escalation in the regular sabre-rattling from Beijing. Following the live-fire exercises, Taiwan military has said it responded “appropriately” by deploying multiple aircraft and ships to prepare a defence.
The flashpoint of the current tension is the official trip to Taiwan by the US Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi (and 5 other House Democrats), whose purpose is to create “an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan… as it defends itself and its freedom.” China, which beliefs Taiwan to be part of their country, has deemed this visit as “a threat to regional security”, causing the subsequent threats and extravagant flexing of its military strength.
Despite this firm American support, the US still maintains only an informal relationship with Taiwan as a requirement for diplomatic relations with China is to not legally recognise Taiwan. A White House spokesperson has responded to these acts, calling them “irresponsible” and adding that they “raise the risk of miscalculation”. Yet China is adamant they are in no way perpetrating, and that the conflict has only stemmed from US involvement.
Currently, only 15 countries recognise Taiwan as a separate state, but is it possible that the “robust, unofficial relations with Taiwan” could evolve into an official nature as China’s posture becomes more belligerent and tensions continue to grow?
In a joint statement made by the foreign ministers of Australia, Japan and the US, concern was expressed over China’s military action. In response to this, the Chinese embassy in Australia released a statement claiming,
“It is absolutely unacceptable for the finger-pointing on China’s justified actions to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity. We firmly oppose and sternly condemn this.”
The statement defends all actions of the Chinese government as “justified”, condemning all foreign interference with what they see as their internal affairs.
The 80-year coexistence between China and Taiwan has traditionally been protected by the challenges of taking a large island over 100km from the mainland in the face of strong international support.
Putin’s foray into Ukraine will have given hawks in Beijing a reason to reassess their desire to push for reunification. However, with the rapid growth in China’s military strength and its willingness to project force, the US, Japan, Australia and the UK will see the current drills as more of a threat than they used to.
China will continue to test their resolve. However, both sides have a strong incentive to continue with the ambiguity that has maintained peace in the region as Taiwan wishes to avoid invasion, and, particularly following the international reaction to Russia’s invas… “special military operation” in Ukraine.