End In Sight?
The Light At The And Of The Tunnel May Finally Be Here.
D. H. Kang
ON MAY THE 31ST, President Biden delivered a speech on the Middle East, in which he revealed a proposal from the Israeli authorities for what he described as “a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages.” This proposal would encompass three stages:
- A six-week truce during which Israel would withdraw its forces from the primary urban areas and return the Palestinian prisoners they held, and in exchange, Hamas would release their female, elderly, and wounded hostages.
- At the same time, both sides would negotiate through intermediaries for a more prolonged ceasefire, including a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and for Hamas to release the male Israeli soldiers and more of the Palestinian prisoners.
- The return of the corpses of presumably dead hostages to Israel and the enaction of an internationally funded program to rebuild the Gaza Strip.
Biden notably leaked this proposal shortly after the beginning of the Sabbath, during which time Israeli cabinet ministers from the religious right (most likely to oppose the proposal) would be disconnected from the internet and unable to make any statements. Later on, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu did officially admit that this plan was of the Israeli government’s own making.
But before anyone gets excited, this is a proposal that has yet to be fulfilled in any measure and is prone to change. Crucially, only the war cabinet, not the Prime Minister’s allies, endorsed it. For the proposal to be put into action, a majority of Mr Netanyahu’s cabinet will need to concur. Mr Netanyahu also proclaimed that Biden’s enthusiastic description of the proposal was “inaccurate” and the primary goal of Israel remained the same: to eradicate the entirety of Hamas.
(Prime Minister Netanyahu – credits to CNN)
But what caused this proposal to happen in the first place? For Prime Minister Netanyahu, the increasing number of hostages (from Israel) has resulted in a growing number of families putting pressure on him to prioritise retrieving hostages over destroying Hamas. Currently, more than a third of the hostages held by Hamas are presumed to be dead. Moreover, a large part of their goals (to destroy Hamas, get their hostages back, and to prevent any attack in the future) have been achieved – more than 110 000 people in Gaza have been killed or injured according to ABC News, and it seems unlikely that Hamas will have the man-power to retaliate at the end of this war.
However, Hamas has yet to issue any form of response to Israeli’s proposal. The final word will be held by Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza, who will likely demand that Israeli fully cease their attacks and promise not to attempt to find and kill him, something unlikely to be promised given that he instigated the attacks on October 7th which Israel started a whole war over. Positive signs are seen, but as with anything as complex as a war, the result will likely be far closer to the conclusion of The Monkey’s Paw than a clean-cut truce and handshake.