From Our Knowledgebank
Independent schools are flying into the future
By Peter Buckingham
Peter Buckingham is the Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis, a Melbourne based consultancy in demographics, mapping and analysis specializing in schools. Peter is both a CMC (Certified Management Consultant) and a Fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants (FIMC). Peter can be contacted at peterb@spectrumanalysis.com.au or called on 03 98300077 or visit our website at https://spectrumanalysis.com.au/services/education-analysis/
If your school has remained stable, dropped enrolments or has NOT felt the pressure of additional enrolment requests, you should be concerned!
Nationally, the numbers are showing Independent schools growing more than Catholic or Government schools.
Many of us (myself included) were of the view a couple of years ago that the covid pandemic would cause more economic strain across the country, and force (for financial reasons) an exodus of students from Independent schools into the Government schools system. Whilst unemployment went up (temporarily), it was low in the white collar and grey collar communities, and these are predominantly the parents of your students, at least in Adelaide. However the future may change this as inflation is starting to run strongly across our country and interest rate increases will put more strain on the family budget.
If we just look at 2019 as the pre Covid level, and 2021 as the Covid effected year, we see Independent schools enrolments rose 6.33% over that 2 year period. By contrast, Total student enrolments increased by 2.35%, Government schools increased only 1.25% and Catholic schools increased by 2.87%.
South Australia
Independent schools enrolments were up 4.45% in South Australia – 2021 (covid effected year) over 2019 (pre covid year), mainly due to people sending their children to Independent schools earlier than they were planning to because the Independent schools handled schooling over the Covid years far better than Government schools. This was not surprising when you think of the quality of your teachers and of the computer hardware that would be available in households of Independent school families for home schooling compared to lower socio economic families with children at Government schools. While lock downs and school closures were far less in South Australia than in the eastern states, it still had a mental effect on the parent’s decisions.
Catholic schools appear to have done very well over the 2 year period increasing by 6.24%, while the Government schools actually decreased in enrolments by 1.63%. Overall the increase in student numbers over the 2 year period was only 0.80%, which is much less than the National figures.
We extracted this information out of the new ACARA data for South Australia that goes up to and includes 2021:
Northern Territory
The Northern Territory has far less Independent schools than other states and territories and actually showed a drop in Total Student numbers and a drop in Independent school enrolments, the only state or territory to do this. These numbers are not able to be explained by myself so I will leave it to the readers to apply their local views.
Learnings from these numbers.
Whilst averages can be dangerous, and different geographies may have different challenges, the overall climate within South Australia for Independent schools over the last 3 years has been moving upwards, but not apparently as quick as the Catholic education system. When the total number of students at Independent schools in South Australia has increased 5.84% from 2018 to 2021, hopefully you have felt the trend.
Longer term this will not last, but if parents have now placed their children in Independent schools, it is very difficult to then explain to them why you wish to take them back to a Government school. My view is that these strong numbers will hold for the next year or so, and then may reduce in the future.
In summary, South Australian Independent schools need to not become complacent with their stronger enrolment numbers over the last 3 years, but be prepared for this to turn as the economic conditions start to surpass the feeling of comfort in from the covid years.
